Supply Analysis

摘要

The supply of primary aluminium in the world outside of China has been flat for the past month or so, with a few restarts in New Zealand and Germany, and a curtailment in South Africa, But rumours of a furtherlm tpy of restarts in China for Q3 have been circulating. These may be justified, if April and May demand trends continue, but may lead to drastic international oversupply if those demand figures had more to do with restocking and government purchases than fundamental consumption. Until further information confirms these restarts we are maintaining our surplus for 2009 at 1.6m tonnes, but have lowered our surpluses for 2010 and 2011 on the assumption that new Indian projects will be delayed on readily available Chinese capacity, and that these idle Chinese potlines will be brought back on-line more slowly.