TO LEARN OR TO CHANGE: OPTIMAL R&D INVESTMENTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN THE CASE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

摘要

When studying R&D investments in technologies that address potential damage from climate change (termed as research to change or RTC), current literature overlooks the effects of purchased learning (i.e., learn through scientific research, termed as research to learn or RTL) about climate change. We investigate interactions between optimal R&D investments in RTC and RTL under uncertainty in climate change and research outcomes, while accounting for the positive impact that successful RTL may have on RTC outcome. We find that simultaneously investing in both RTL and RTC may be optimal when the probability that climate change imposes a specific level of damage is either moderate or very high and when RTL cost is relatively low. Whenever RTL and RTC are conducted simultaneously, then they substitute. However, when it is not optimal to conduct RTC and RTL simultaneously, then an increase in RTC cost decreases, at least weakly, RTL investment (i.e., RTL and RTC complement). When the probability that climate change imposes damage increases, then the optimal RTL investment may first decrease and then increase. Moreover, we identify conditions under which either the precautionary principle or the learn-then-act principle should be followed regarding R&D investments.