Rise of the Dragon

摘要

In its 2022 Commercial Market Outlook, Boeing said the global fleet would grow from 25,900 aircraft in pre-pandemic 2019 to 47,080 in 2041. It also predicts that the widebody fleet will increase from 4,660 to 8,360 twin-aisle aircraft in the same period. China's fleet will increase from 3,930 to 9,630 aircraft, with widebodies going from 620 to 1,680 jets or 20 of the global fleet. China will have more widebody aircraft than any other region worldwide and increase the widebodies in service by 270 compared to 2019. While widebodies make up just 18 of the global fleet, they are the big ticket items that add billions of dollars to order books and bring in premium ticket sales. Over the next 20 years, China will be high on the radar of Airbus and Boeing for widebody orders, so Air International investigates what the widebody future looks like in the Middle Kingdom. Widebody services are generally the province of the major carriers in China, so this analysis focuses on five carriers with more than 70 twin-aisle airliners in their fleets. From mainland China, these are China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China and Hainan Airlines and Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific.