Agricultural transformation in Estonia - situation and outlook in spring 1998.

摘要

The transformation of agriculture in Estonia since 1992/93 has shown that despite a liberal economic policy and considerable economic success, shortages persist within the area of agricultural primary production: capitalisation, privatization of land, sector services and manufacturing industry. The privatization of state-owned land (ca. 75% of the agricultural area) is yet to be effected. Agricultural production continues to decline with the exception of the dairy sector. In 1997, 54% of dairy products were exported without subsidies. Estonian raw milk production is to a large extent competitive due to low wages and the low cost of investment and land utilisation. Although in the decade ahead, labour and investment cost advantages are expected todwindle, considerable production reserves may be realised for cost reduction. The cost of land utilisation will remain low since the cultivation of cereals holds little competitive advantage. Moreover, the dairy sector bears considerable streamlining potential and reserves of added value. During the next ten years price trends will favour labour extensification and a growing capital intensity. The projected locational conditions point towards a growing importance of the dairy industry both in relative and in absolute terms regarding factor utilisation and value added. In this area, Estonia should affirm its position as a competitive export nation through a marked effort in agrostructural policy and by investing in the modernisation of the dairy sector.The necessity for degression of milk production costs denotes the need for an increase in national raw milk production and further concentration and specialisation in the processing sector. Regarding the cultivation of grain and production based on tradable inputs (eggs, chicken, pork), the status as a basically importing country will be reinforced.