SECOND ESTIMATE OF THE WORLD COFFEE BALANCE 2009/10

摘要

The 2009/10 season was a case in point for our previous warnings that the supply situation in the years from 2009/10 could be more precarious than it has been in the recent past. With demand continuing to rise throughout the global economic crisis, albeit at a much slower pace, the ongoing stock depletion mirrors that the supply side is experiencing difficulty in keeping up with that growth. Years of low coffee prices have led to structural problems in several origins, which include lack of replanting, lack of input use and lack of labour due to their migration into cities. These problems have been compounded by adverse weather conditions over the last two years related to the El Nino and La Nino weather phenomena. Adverse effects of the global financial crisis such as credit to finance purchases harder to come by were also not supportive, as was the weakness of the US dollar in recent years, which lowered the return of dollar-denominated coffee sales in grower-country currencies. With several ofthese factors Btill prevalent, it will remain a challenge for supply to keep up with demand growth. It can be assumed that current high prices will be taken as a welcome windfall by growers, but we do not expect them to trigger an immediate rise of new plantings. These would only occur if the growers can expect high prices to stay for a foreseeable time, but prospects for this are not too bad given the challenges still daunting the sector amid ongoing demand growth.