Conflicting views muddy picture

摘要

THE JURY SEEMS to be out over whether aluminium - the base metal that has been described as cheap to use, but expensive to make - may finally be enjoying something of a comeback thanks to China, During the September quarter Morgan Stanley's European research arm raised its aluminium price forecast by 2 percent in 2007, 18 percent in 2008 and 19 percent in 2009 after predicting the Chinese Government would attempt to reduce the metal's domestic supply in order to cut power consumption fend therefore air pollution). The east Asian giant, however, was expected to continue to consume the product, with strong global growth - on the back of cheaper substitution - being fundamental to the commodity's price outlook. Morgan Stanley's analysis was in contrast to that of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), which suggested the base metal's short term market value looked set to fall, while Chinese production would actually increase.