Outside of the global financial crisis era through early 2009, we have to go back to 2002 for the last time the European ferrochrome contract price failed to rise during the second quarter, and even back in 2002 it only fell by1C/lb. Nevertheless, as we explained last month with regard to second-quarter contract negotiations, "only a small movement in prices is expected, with the possibility of a rollover." One thus should always be wary of blindly following previous historical patterns when the fundamentals point to other outcomes.
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