Future trends in breast, cervical, lung, mouth and pharyngeal cancer incidence in Slovenia.

摘要

OBJECTIVES: Breast, cervical, lung, mouth and pharyngeal cancers are important public health problems in Slovenia, and in many other Central and South European countries. The aim of this study was to predict the incidence of these cancers in Slovenia up to the year 2009, based on the data of the Cancer Registry of Slovenia for the period 1965-1994 and on the official national population projections for the Republic of Slovenia. METHODS: Age-period-cohort models were applied. In the case of data heterogeneity in lung as well as in mouth and oropharyngeal cancer in males, an additional parameter indicating differences in lifestyle was introduced in the model. RESULTS: After accounting for major site-specific risk factors, we predict in females a steady increase in breast and lung cancer, but no major changes in cervical cancer case-load. In males a steady decrease in the lung cancer case-load is expected throughout the predicted period, while for mouth and pharyngeal cancer a moderate decrease is expected only after the year 2000. CONCLUSION: Despite some uncertainties inherent in cancer incidence predictions, the obtained results are important in setting priorities for national cancer control strategies in Slovenia, especially in further efforts towards primary prevention of lung, mouth and pharyngeal cancer, and in more efficient early detection of breast, cervical, mouth and pharyngeal cancer.