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A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds

机译:计算极端风速的方法综述

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摘要

Methods to calculate extreme wind speeds are described and reviewed, including 'classical' methods based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), and approaches designed specifically to deal with short data sets. The emphasis is very much on the needs of users who seek an accurate method to derive extreme wind speeds but are not fully conversant with up-to-date developments in this complex subject area. First, 'standard' methods are reviewed: annual maxima, independent storms, #gamma#-largest extremes with the GEV distribution, and peak-over-threshold extremes with the GPD. Techniques for calculating the distribution parameters and quantiles are described. There follows a discussion of the factors which must be considered in order to fulfil the criterion that the data should be independent and identically distributed, and in order to minimize standard errors. It is commonplace in studies of extreme wind speeds that the time series available for analysis are very short. Finally, therefore, the paper deals with techniques applicable to data sets as short as two years, including simulation modelling and methods based on the parameters of the parent distribution.
机译:描述和回顾了计算极端风速的方法,包括基于广义极值(GEV)分布和广义帕累托分布(GPD)的“经典”方法,以及专门为处理短数据集而设计的方法。重点非常放在寻求精确方法以导出极端风速但对这一复杂主题领域的最新发展并不完全熟悉的用户的需求上。首先,对“标准”方法进行了审查:年度最大值,独立风暴,GEV分布的#gamma#最大极端和GPD的阈值峰值以上极限。描述了用于计算分布参数和分位数的技术。接下来讨论为了满足数据应该独立且均匀分布的标准以及为了最小化标准误差而必须考虑的因素。在极端风速研究中,很常见的是可用于分析的时间序列非常短。因此,最后,本文探讨了适用于短至两年的数据集的技术,包括基于父分布参数的仿真建模和方法。

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