THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH ON THE USE OF EXPERT SYSTEMS (ES) IN ASSESSING RISKS OF FAILURE IN METALLURGICAL COMPANIES

摘要

The systems' engineering has reached an explosive development of intelligent systems technology which solves complex problems based on human expertise accumulated in the past and following the processes of learning and reasoning very similar to those of the biological brain. In this article, the concept of the proposed expert system is the result of interdisciplinary researches (computer science, management, accounting and business administration, etc.), which are designed to provide a tool for top management work force of a listed metallurgical company. The inference machine will provide in the end score functions for Altman, Conan Holder model and rating which eventually can be combined into a single model that will forecast the company's evolution in coming years.