The influence of assumptions on generation time distributions in epidemic models

摘要

A simple class of stochastic models for epidemic spread infinite, but large, populations is studied. The purpose is to investigate how assumptions about the times between primary and secondary infections influences the outcome of the epidemic. Of particular interest is how assumptions of individual variability in infectiousness relates to variability of the epidemic curve. The main concern is the final size of the epidemic and the time scale at which it evolves. The theoretical results are illustrated by simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.