Simulating impact of climatic variability and extreme climatic events on crop production

摘要

Wide range of inter-annual climatic variability and frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events in Indian context is a great concern. There is a need to assess the impact of these events on agriculture production as well suggest the agri-management options for sustenance. The appropriate region specific agro-advisory needs to be established for the farmers and other stake holders. Crop simulation models are effective tools for assessing the crops' response to these climate related events and for suggesting suitable adaptation procedures for ensuring higher agricultural production. Remote sensing and GIS are effective tools in this regard to prepare the regional based agro-advisories, by linking with the crop simulation models and relational database layers of bio-physical and socio-economic aspects. For effective agro-advisory services, there is a need to link the other biotic and abiotic stresses for accurate estimates and generating window of suitable agri-management options. Crop simulation models can effectively integrate these stresses for crop and soil processes understanding and ultimate yield formation. In this review article, we have discussed about the inter-annual/seasonal climatic variability and occurrence of extreme climatic events in India and demonstrated the potential of crop models viz., INFOCROP, WTGROWS, DSSAT to assess the impact of these events (also including climate change) on growth and yield of crops and cropping systems and thereby suggesting appropriate adaptation strategies for sustenance. The potential of remote sensing for crop condition assessment and regionalational yield forecast has been demonstrated. Crop simulation tools coupled with remote sensing inputs through GIS can play an important role in evolving this unique operational platform of designing weather based agro-advisory services for India.