A comparison of two voting models to forecast election into the national baseball hall of fame

摘要

We present a comparison of two voting models to forecast election into The National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Although both voting models provide similar predictions on which eligible players should be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame, we believe that the voting model that uses individual performance variables rather than a single performance index is marginally better because it allows the data to determine the relative importance of the individual performance variables included in the single performance index.