With the exception of aluminium and nickel, consumption of base metals declined year-on-year in the first half of 2002. During the remaining months of the year, however, we expect demand to exhibit positive year-on-year growth, but caution that this will be from a low base in the second half of 2001. Consumption in H2 2001 was heavily impacted by the events of September 11, the underlying economic slowdown and de-stocking which peaked in the fourth quarter. The prospects for an absolute increase in demand, or increases over H 1 levels, are much slimmer.Given the all-too-often disappointing tone of recent economic releases in both Europe and the USA especially, combined with volatile equity markets and growing concerns over a US-led attack on Iraq, the overall demand outlook for the second half of 2002 is inescapably bearish.
展开▼
