Support kicks in, but mood remains dark

摘要

Support may have kicked in last week in the $14,600-14,700 range, but we arenot yet convinced that this is a firm holding level. There is little doubt that asthe fourth quarter has progressed the general mood in the commodities spherehas worsened quite significantly. We now see little potential for this to besustainably reversed ahead of year-end and to reflect this have opted to cut ourQ4 base case price forecast substantially to just $15,200/tonne. This is much morealigned to our low case scenario, which still stands at $14,500/tonne.