Determinants of smallholder farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change in the semi arid Nguru Local Government Area, Northeastern Nigeria

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to understand the factors determining smallholder farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change, in the semi-arid region of Nguru, Nigeria and toward sustainable management of their agricultural production and livelihood. Design/methodology/approach - Both primary and secondary data were used. Primary data were collected by use of structured questionnaires, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Based on the research plan, a total of 250 individual households were randomly selected and interviewed. Findings - The stepwise multiple linear regression model ran using SPSS revealed nine variables significantly determining the adaptation of climate change strategies. The variables found significant were: agricultural labor force, level of education of the household head, land tenure arrangements, gender of the household head, extension service availability, out-migration of labor, years of farming experience, household size and availability of farmer to farmer extension. The predicted R value of 0.87, R~2 of 0.63, and adjusted R~2 of 0.60 indicate high explanatory power of the model as a whole. Originality/value - The acceptance of the variables included in the model helps very useful policy conclusions for climate change adaptations to be drawn. All these variables, except gender and outmigration, have a positive influence on climate change adaptation strategies. The influence of agricultural labor force appeared to be strongest, indicating the very important role of this factor in adaptation and the need for promotion of less labour-intensive, but more remunerative adaptation strategies that would enable smallholder farmers to manage all of their farm plots in an effective way.