Are predictions of cancer response to targeted drugs, based on effects in unrelated tissues, the 'Black Swan' events?

摘要

Adverse effects of targeted drugs on normal tissues can predict the cancer response. Rash correlates with efficacy of erlotinib, cetuximab and gefitinib and onset of arterial hypertension with response to bevacizumab, sunitinib, axitinib and sorafenib, possible examples of Black Swan' events, unexpected scientific observations, as described by Karl Popper in 1935. The proposition is that our patients have individual intrinsic variants of cell growth control, important for tumor response and adverse effects on tumor-unrelated tissue. This means that the lack of predictive side effects in healthy tissue is linked with poor results of tumor therapy when tumor resistance is caused by mechanisms that protect all cells of that patient from the targeted drug effects.