Yuzhnyy resolve weakens despite heavy buying

摘要

Largely expected to weaken on limited fresh demand, prices in the Black Sea were supported by traders covering prior short positions early this week. The euphoria was short lived again however, as market fundamentals remain unchanged. It is estimated that 120,000 mt urea was carried over from February production in the Black Sea despite the cuts in Ukrainian production, adding significantly to March availability. Overall, and despite the fresh demand that did emanate from traders with short positions to cover, the market still appears headed for significant oversupply over the next 30-60 days. The downward adjustment in prices was merely delayed via the continuing purchases this week, potentially supporting current FOB values for an additional 10-15 days.