Estimations of climate change impacts on crop production in the Republic of Moldova

摘要

Statistical methods for assessing crop sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in Moldova were demonstrated and the following procedures were discussed: (1) projections of likely agroclimatic change; (2) assessments of crop sensitivity to climate change; and (3) assessments of the impact of climate change on crops. In order to predict the future agroclimate, key meteorological variables were transformed statistically to correspond to changes in plants' heat and water supply characteristics. Sensitivity of crop production was examined for corn and winter wheat. By combining the agroclimatic changes with crop response, possible impacts have been estimated and form a basis for possible adaptation strategies. It was shown that regional climate change can result in elevated aridity of Moldova's territory, especially during periods of crop growth. Cultivation of cereal crops in new agroclimatic conditions without adaptation measures will negatively affect yields, especially of winter wheat, whose yield decrease may be 18–39% by 2020s and 22–50% by 2050s. Corn yields may increase by 0–3% and 1–6%, respectively. As an example of adaptation, it is shown that the use of an increased number of late hybrids results in a 25–35% increase in corn yields.