Outlook for sheep flock

摘要

Mecardo looked at flock size predictions in August last year. In mid-2015 the sheep offtake was falling, and the scene looked set for the flock to increase. However, a dry spring scuppered the increase thereby maintaining downward pressure on the flock size.With the southern sheep regions on the cusp of a new pasture season, it is time to look at flock projections for the coming year.Figure 1 shows the year on year change in the official estimate of the opening flock size by the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) and a model of this change from Independent Commodity Services (ICS). The ICS model is based on a rolling median of a wool to wheat price ratio, lagged by a year. The second key input into the ICS model is a weighted annual rainfall rank for the sheep regions. The wool to wheat price ratio provides some ability to project flock size changes, with median rainfall used where projections are made. The model points in Figure 1 includes error bars that give a feel for the error inherent in a simple model that is attempting to reflect a complex system.The model projection for 2016-17, based on median rainfall, shows no change to the flock size. The commodity price ratio that underpins the model has been unchanged for the past three seasons, flagging that the wool price is not strong enough relative tocrop prices to drag farm resources away from the cropping industry. The performance of crops in the latest Holmes Sackett benchmarking publication (Aglnsights Vol 18) supports the model view.