Modeling of the financial reserves required by the livestock disease compensation fund of Lower Saxony for rebates in the course of disease outbreaks incorporating spatial restriction zones

摘要

One of the tasks of the livestock disease compensation funds of the federal states in Germany is the financial compensation of livestock holders for livestock losses and costs incurred for disease control measures due to certain diseases. Usually, one half of these services are financed through financial reserves built up with the contributions paid by the owners of the respective animal species. The other half is covered by the federal state itself. But there is hardly any reference to how to calculate aforementioned financial reserves. Basically, following an approach presented recently regarding estimations concerning the compensation fund of the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, in a stochastic modeling of the required reserves concerning the fund of Lower Saxony the anticipated costs within the spatial restriction zones allocated to outbreaks were incorporated for the first time, The overall costs (including the federal state's stakes), the share of the compensation fund (required reserves) and the partial costs for a total of 25 categories and subcategories of livestock species making up the latter were estimated. It became evident that overall costs/the share of the fund were particularly determined among the diseases by foot-and-mouth disease and among the cost factors by the costs incurred for the compensation of livestock value within the areas surrounding the outbreaks in which all susceptible animals are killed (culling zone). The 80th, 90th and 95th percentile of the established probability distribution of the overall costs referred to a financial volume of about 312,409 and 540 million euro, while the respective percentiles of the probability distribution of the required reserves of the compensation fund amounted to 175, 225 and 296 million euro.