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The wisdom of crowds - ensembles and modules in environmental modelling

机译:人群的智慧-环境建模中的合奏和模块

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摘要

Predictive models that are composed of a number of combined models, although ubiquitous in climate prediction have not yet become popular in many other areas of environmental modelling, despite growing evidence that they are superior to single-model methods in many ways. These combined-model methodologies are termed ensembles and modules, and this paper reviews their concepts, advantages and how to create them. Additionally, they will be discussed in terms of the critically important bias/variance trade-off. Moreover, ensembles and modules will be discussed with reference to historical and current research papers within environmental modelling. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译:尽管有越来越多的证据表明,在许多领域中,预测模型都比单一模型方法优越,但由气候模型中普遍存在的预测模型尚未在环境建模的许多其他领域中普及。这些组合模型方法被称为集成和模块,本文将回顾它们的概念,优势以及如何创建它们。此外,将根据至关重要的偏差/方差折衷对它们进行讨论。此外,将参考环境建模中的历史和当前研究论文来讨论合奏和模块。 (C)2008 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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