Gaining ground: Gazprom and the Russian independents

摘要

Gazprom’s eastern supply strategy is under threat. Mounting costs, the absence of Chinese pre-payments and concerns over Gazprom’s ability to secure enough gas and capital for the Power of Siberia project are signifcant stumbling blocks. These challenges represent an opportunity for Russia’s independent gas players to gain market share, while smaller producers, especially those able to ofer associated petroleum gas, could also step up. While none of these companies - with the notable exception of Rosneft - would have access to export routes in the coming decade, the situation will gradually change after 2025. If China’s gas demand growth is robust and Gazprom is slow to develop the Chayanda and Kovykhta felds, more independents are likely to breach the diminishing export monopoly. Gas Strategies examines the potential pitfalls along Gazprom’s road to diversifcation.