Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of water resource carrying capacity in Shiyang River Basin: based on the geographical detector method

摘要

In this article, the comprehensive evaluation of water resource carrying capacity (for short WRCC) in Shiyang River Basin is the objective. Based on the comprehensive evaluation model of regional WRCC, the spatial and temporal change characteristics of the WRCC in Shiyang River Basin in 2007, 2011 and 2016 have been analyzed. Moreover, the influence elements of water resource carrying capacity in Shiyang River Basin are detected by the geographical detector. The results show that: (1) In terms of the spatial dimension, water resources in Shiyang River Basin are not in accordance with the distribution of social and economic development and population distribution, presenting a prominent contradiction between supply and demand of water resources; (2) in terms of the temporal dimension, the pressure on water resources in Shiyang River Basin has gradually increased, and the area of overload, light overload and serious overload has been augmented; (3) the geographical detector indicates that the influences of the water resources system and coordinating system factors are declining, and the influences of the social economy system and ecological factor are obviously increasing. The influences of the interaction with any two factors are stronger than that of a single factor, and the synergistic influences of two factors are aggravated.