ZONATION OF FAILURE PROBABILITY FORLANDSLIDES INDUCED BY EARTHQUAKE INKITAKYUSHU CITY USING GIS

摘要

We calculate failure probability of earthquake-induced landslides throughout Kitakyushu City basedon Monte Carlo simulation (minimizing the uncertainty of slope parameters) and Newmark stabilityanalysis (estimating factors of safety). Meanwhile, hazard maps of earthquake-induced landslides inKitakyushu city are produced according to the results of failure probability by using the geographicalinformation system (GIS) with different peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and seismic occurrenceperiods at both conditions of m = 0 and m =1 . On the hazard maps, it is evident that the districts of Kokura Minami, Moji, Kokura Kita,Yahata Higashi and Yahata Nishi in Kitakyushu City would suffer the disaster of landslide severely. Inthe lower cases of PGA, the Southwest of Kokura Minami, the borders between Moji and Kokura Kita,and the borders between Yahata Higashi and Yahata Nishi are the major areas impacted by extremelyserious hazard of earthquake-induced landslides. As PGA, seismic occurrence period or/and waterfactor increases, critical hazard of landslide has an extensive area, covering Wakamatsu. Nevertheless,Tobata, the only one of fortunate district throughout Kitakyushu City, is in safety all the time.