Adoption and diffusion of heating systems in Norway: Coupling agent-based modeling with empirical research

摘要

Sophisticated modeling techniques can help policy makers examine technology interventions aimed at addressing climate change mitigation and other environmental issues. Since adoption of a new technology is not only based on technical properties, policy makers must also consider human behavior. This paper presents a model for simulating heating system adoption processes from an end-user perspective. A literature review was carried out to identify potential decision-making variables and their relationships. An empirical survey was then conducted to test the variables and their interconnections as well as to derive model parameters. The empirically grounded agent-based model is able to reproduce the general patterns of heating system diffusion observable in Norway. The results suggest that increased adoption of wood-pellet heating is dependent on improved functional reliability and the improvement of fuel stability. Price volatility of both wood-pellets and electricity are important variables. Spatial results indicate that wood-pellet adopters are those closeby wood-pellet suppliers.