Effects of shoreline sensitivity on oil spill trajectory modeling of the Lower Mississippi River

摘要

Background, aim, and scope The Lower Mississippi River is a major transportation route for commercial goods and petroleum products produced and refined locally. Oil spills caused by vessel accidents and equipment failure at refineries are a serious threat to the drinking water supply of Southern Louisiana, as well as to the many natural, economic, and social resources supported by the river. Providing accurate trajectory modeling to contingency planners is critical to protecting the local environment. The majority of trajectory model results, assuming a uniform shoreline, show 60-70% of spilled oil can be retained. This study examines the impact of detailed shoreline mapping that captures spatial and temporal changes in shoreline type on oil spill trajectory modeling. Materials and methods Detailed shoreline maps based on recent remote sensing imagery were generated to identify spatial changes in shoreline. A hydrodynamic model of the 78 mile reach from Convent, Louisiana to West Pointe a la Hache was developed to obtain the stage levels and velocity fields of four river discharges. Based on river stage level, another layer was added to the shoreline maps, so that shoreline type was accurately represented at each river discharge, a feature not included in previous mapping. An oil spill trajectory model was then used to investigate the effect of implementing different re-floatation half-lives that correlate to the shoreline maps developed for this study at four river discharges.