How reliable are thermal constants for insect development when estimated from laboratory experiments?

摘要

As our estimates for the thermal constants are close to the values reported in the literature (Table 1), it is likely that the calculation procedure for their estimation was the same or at least similar to those applied in the original studies. We areconcerned about the large uncertainty in the regression coefficients (a and b) and consequently in the estimated LDT and SET values (Figure 2) for some values in the literature (e.g., Bryan & Smith, 1956; Robb & Parrella, 1991; Jarosik et al., 1997), especially as the uncertainty is not commonly included in study reports. The confidence regions for coefficients a and b, and thus for the estimates of LDT and SET, overlap in many cases, which means that their estimates cannot be distinguished with 90% confidence. There are different sources of the uncertainty, mostly related to the experimental setup and quality of experimental results (Figure 3).