The world is drifting through a historic transition toward a new multipolar order. Following 20 years of virtually unchallenged US supremacy, this is coinciding with the first global recession. It is also proving full of contradictions, causes and grievances that will provide ample scope for conflict. The fact that the nature of conflict is changing in ways that challenge established military and political doctrines adds to the confusion and uncertainties of the new year, as will a string of more or less democratic elections in a dozen countries. Shake this kaleidoscope and one pattern repeats itself: political instability and oil price volatility, writes Energy Intelligence's Axel Busch.
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机译：世界正经历着向新的多极秩序的历史性转变。在美国历经20年几乎无人挑战的霸权之后，这恰逢第一次全球经济衰退。它也被证明充满了矛盾，起因和不满，将为冲突提供足够的空间。冲突的性质正在以挑战既定的军事和政治学说的方式发生变化的事实加剧了新的一年的混乱和不确定性，在十几个国家举行的一系列或多或少的民主选举中也是如此。 Energy Intelligence的Axel Busch写道，动摇这种万花筒，就会有一种模式在重复：政治动荡和油价波动。
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