An Estimation Method for Distribution System Load with Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on ICA

摘要

A large number of dispersed generators (DGs) are expected to be installed in distribution systems. Therefore, state estimation is an important problem for stable and reliable system operation. However, it is difficult to estimate the total power of DGs connected to a load-side system from a metering spot on the distribution line because at the metering spot only the sum of the active power from various loads and DGs can be measured. In this paper, we propose an estimation method for unknown DG outputs connected to a distribution system. This method enables to estimate DG outputs by analyzing power flow data measured at one spot, using independent component analysis (ICA). The estimation by ICA needs the same number of observations as estimations. However, the observation spots are extremely limited in existing distribution systems. Thus, we propose an estimation method which makes it possible to estimate DG outputs and load changes from single observations by using known information on the load power and a priori knowledge of insolation.