High agricultural commodities prices: a new situation for the future? (Special Issue: Regards sur l'evolution de l'agriculture et du monde rural.)

摘要

This paper deals with the chances of permanently high agricultural commodity prices in the medium- and long-runs and the reasons for this situation. In the short run, climatic conditions are playing an important role. In the long run, income improvement among an increasing number of people in emerging economies leads to increasing demand for animal proteins and, indirectly, for cereals and oilseeds. In the medium run, agricultural policies are playing a major role thanks to commodity stock reductions and the expansion of biofuel production.