Evidence of peak-to-peak dynamics in ecology

摘要

Remarkably irregular peaks characterize the dynamics of many plant and animal populations. As such peaks are often associated with undesirable consequences (e.g. pest outbreaks, epidemics, forest fires), the forecast of the forthcoming peak is a problem of major concern. Here we show, through the analysis of a number of models and of some of the longest and most celebrated ecological time-series, that the intensity of the forthcoming peak can often be predicted simply from the previous peaks. When this is possible, one can also predict the time of occurrence of the forthcoming peak.