Reanalysis of ancient eclipse, astronomic and geodetic data: A possible route to resolving the enigma of global sea-level rise

摘要

Predictions of the Earth's response to the ice age appear to simultaneously reconcile a set of astronomical, geodetic and ancient eclipse observations related to changes in rotation, thus ruling out ice melting as a major contributor to 20th century sea-level rise. We demonstrate that the reconciliation disappears when an improved theory of rotational stability is applied. Furthermore, our reanalysis of longer satellite records renders previous estimates of the secular change in rotation rate suspect. The updated ice-age predictions and observations permit an anomalous 20th century ice flux of similar to 1 mm/yr equivalent sea-level rise. Thus, the full suite of Earth rotation observations are consistent with a connection between climatic warming and recent melting of ice reservoirs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.