The most recent economic downturn is a peak oil recession: As nations and corporations consider their energy strategies for the future, their beliefs about the sources of the current recession will prove critical in strategy formulation

摘要

Was the current recession the result of a normal business cycle? If so, life will return to normal as asset and commodity bubbles are squeezed out of the economy. The price of oil will remain manageable, US consumers will begin looking for ever more powerful SUVs, and governments can afford to ignore fossil fuels in formulating policy. Or was the recession primarily a consequence of peak oil? If it was the latter, the world is on notice that oil has entered its twilight years and fundamentally new approaches to transportation will be required to maintain accustomed standards of living. In the absence of new solutions in the short to medium term, periods of prosperity will likely be punctuated by recurring oil price shocks and painful recessions as the world adjusts to a shortage of oil.