Conservation paleobiogeography: the past, present and future of species distributions

摘要

We have long known that the past can inform the future (Dietl and Flessa 2011), but in the field of conservation paleontology, models of current and future situations also inform how we study the past, providing frameworks and hypotheses to be tested using historical experiments. The information provided by the fossil record is used to build and calibrate the models that we use to predict the future. Because information flows in both directions, conservation paleontology is a powerful tool for addressing complex biogeographic issues, such as predicting species distribution patterns under alternate climate regimes. In trying to understand distribution patterns, conservation biology and paleontology ask very similar questions. For example: What is a species' fundamental niche? Do fundamental niches evolve as the environment changes? How do interspecific interactions affect how those niches play out on the landscape? These disciplines use many of the same tools: niche reconstructions, niche conservatism metrics, and species distribution projections (forecasts or hindcasts). In the process of answering these questions, conservation biologists and paleontologists are synergizing to advance the field of predicting species distribution patterns all the more rapidly.