Prediction of the largest events in the sandpile model based on the earthquake precursors

摘要

Earthquake precursors used for earthquake prediction in the M8 algorithm [Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990a] are adapted to the sandpile grid model close to the Manna [1991] model. It is established that the adapted precursors are efficient for predicting the largest model earthquakes. However, as distinct from real seismicity, where activity outbursts often precede a large earthquake, the prediction of the model dynamics, is characterized by a certain quiescence.