Dry and Wet Spell Sequences for Crop Planning at Aurangabad District on Talukawise Basis- A Markov Chain Approach

摘要

In regions of erratic and scanty rainfall, it is important to know probability of dry and wet spell on weekly basis during growing season of crops. The probability of wet spell if coincides with the sensitive phenological stages, it may be detrimentalto crop, on the other hand the dry period at ripening stage of the crop is somewhat beneficial. The variation in rainfall from agricultural management is much more important when considered on weekly basis. The analysis showed that the more chance of occurrence of dry spell at MSN 22 followed by MW41 in all talukas of Aurangabad district so care has to be taken that fertilizer application, hoeing and weeding should be avoided. Probability analysis of occurrence of dry and wet spell provides the relevant information for different intercultural operations and can be useful for farm planning. The data studied in the project revealed that, the probability of occurrence of2 weeks dry spell was highest in MW41 while the probability of occurrence of 4 weeksdry spell was highest in MSN 42. So crops like maize can be sown dry which will be germinate just after the rains and can save the time of land preparation.