A NOTE ON ESTIMATING THE RETURNS FROM NEW TECHNOLOGY - HOW MUCH LEARNING

摘要

Very little information is available regarding the accuracy of firms' estimates of the returns from the adoption of a new technology. This paper presents empirical findings on this score concerning flexible manufacturing systems, based on data obtained from 63 firms, and concerning 18 new processes introduced by one of the nation's largest firms in the 1960s. While the data are not entirely comparable, they indicate that the forecasting errors in the later situation were smaller than in the earlier one. It seems likely that some learning of this sort has occurred, but firms continue to find it very difficult to forecast many of the problems and bugs in a new technology. Additional learning in this area would be most welcome. [References: 6]