Long range trends in the automobile industry output: depensation effects in the logistic modelling

摘要

Automobile industry productivity has profited from incorporating Technology Intelligence (TI) methods as customers became concerned with the technological innovation contents and environmental safety of automobiles. Time series for automobile fleets accretion were analysed using a modified logistic model we recently proposed, consisting in splitting the logistic equation into a product of depensatory and compensatory components. To properly address the influence upon the per capita growth rate and occupancy index of cars fleets from those concerns, a fertility (Allee depensation effect) component is incorporated. Japanese and worldwide automobile fleets are case studies. Synergetic coupling of this methodology to TI techniques is commented upon.