A Japanese experience of a mission-oriented multi-methodology technology foresight process: an empirical trial of a new technology foresight process by integration of the Delphi method and scenario writing

摘要

This paper aims to develop and evaluate a new technology foresight methodology that can contribute to decision making in R&D strategies and policies, by focusing on the integration of the Delphi method and scenario writing. A case study of a technology foresight project conducted in Japan in 2007-2008 is studied. This is a project that tried a new form of mission-oriented technology foresight by coupling two or more technology foresight methodologies. Then, three dilemmas related to the possibility of integrating the Delphi method and scenario writing are considered, along with the assumed action plans for the new technology foresight.