Public Transportation and Private Car: A System Dynamics Approach in Understanding the Mode Choice

摘要

While there is a general agreement that the use of public transportation should be encouraged, it has also been reported that the willingness and tendency to use the public transportation is dominated by the propensity of private car use. Consequently, the persistent increase in the modal share of private car has been a matter of concern in the context of growing cities. This research starts with the understanding that the entire state of the modal share in a city would be the collective reflection of the mode choice behaviour of individuals who populate the large population mass in the city. A causal feedback loop model is developed to study the individual mode choice behaviour in the context of a city. The model is then translated into a system dynamics simulation model. The context of Dubai has been considered in order to operationalise the simulation model. The simulation experiments revealed that it would be challenging to motivate individuals in using the public transportation in the city where private car has already been a dominant mode. It is also found that the very desire of individuals to own and use private car is one of the key points that should be addressed properly if the mode choice is to be influenced.