A novel mathematical model has been developed for predicting moisture uptake by packaged solid pharmaceutical products during storage. High density polyethylene (HDPE) bottles containing the tablet products of two new chemical entities and desiccants are investigated. Permeability of the bottles is determined at different temperatures using steady-state data. Moisture sorption isotherms of the two model drug products and desiccants at the same temperatures are determined and expressed in polynomial equations. The isotherms are used for modeling the time-humidity profile in the container, which enables the prediction of the moisture content of individual component during storage. Predicted moisture contents agree well with real time stability data. The current model could serve as a guide during packaging selection for moisture protection, so as to reduce the cost and cycle time of screening study.
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