Does Chaos Exist in Ecology? Evidence from a Rodent Population

摘要

Ecologists have detected chaos in natural populations for several decades, which was observed in laboratory and proved mathematically, but evidence of chaotic dynamics seems to be absent in Nature. In this paper, we analyze the population dynamics of Tscherskia triton (T. triton) in Wendeng City, North China Plain, from 1982 to 2003. Methods used in this study include Fourier transform, Hurst exponent, Lyapunov exponent, and correlation dimension. Results show that the population dynamics of T. triton is non-periodic, nonlinear, and chaotic. In addition, a short-term prediction concerning the future population dynamics of T. triton was conducted via phase space reconstruction.