ON THE TIME TO EXTINCTION OF RECURRENT EPIDEMICS WITH INITIAL PREVENTIVE MEASURES

摘要

We are interested in how the introduction of preventive measures affects the long time behaviour of endemic diseases. Hie quasi-stationary distribution or conditional limiting distribution has proved to be a potential tool in describing the time to extinction of an epidemic. However, the conditional expectation of susceptible given an infective of quasi-stationary distribution is unknown, thus, we have given theoretical framework for comparison of SVIR model with SIR model and it reveals that the expected time to extinction of an epidemic is less in the presence of immunization programs.