Sustainable development and planning of coal industry under uncertainty using system dynamic and stochastic programming

摘要

We select a city that is one of the ten major coal bases in China and analyse the prospective development of the coal industry in this region. We introduce Stochastic Programming (SP) to the coal industry to manage uncertainties complicating the accurate prediction of the industry's development. First, we establish a coal industry system in the region and analyse this system. Second, we set up a System Dynamic-Stochastic Programming (SD-SP) model based on the coal industry in the region. Third, we set up the SD-SP model with sensitivity analysis to the coal industry. Finally, we complete the simulation by importing optimum parameters and contrasting the optimisation scheme with the current programming scheme.