Spatial distribution of recent rainfall trends in Spain (1961-2006)

摘要

Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends from 1961 to 2006 period were analysed in this study by applying various statistical tools to data from 553 Spanish weather stations. The magnitude of the trends was derived from the slopes of the regression lines using the least squares method, while the statistical significance was determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Geostatistical interpolation techniques were applied to generate rainfall trend surfaces. Combining classic trends tests and spatially interpolated precipitation permits the spatio-temporal visualization of detected trends. Updated trends reveal that rainfall is generally decreasing in January, February, March, April, and June. Around 61, 44 and 12% of the whole territory is evidencing significant negative trends in February, June and March, respectively. Significant precipitation decreases are also noted in more than 28% of Spain in summer and winter. On the contrary, rainfall is significantly increasing in October in more than 21% of Spain and areas mainly located in north-western areas. May, August, September and autumn also show significant positive trends in the period 1961-2006, although the percentages are lower than for negative trends. Finally, the annual precipitation is significantly decreasing in 11% of the territory.