The detection of climate impacts: some methodological considerations

摘要

Recently, the search for evidence of climate-change impacts has been intense. Long-term and not so very long-term data are being examined for evidence of climatic response. Three commonly used methods involve (i) correlation with an ever-increasing number of climatic variables, (ii) examining trends through time and (iii) a comparison between two points in time. In this paper we provide examples designed to emphasize the need for impassionate and critical examination of findings, the so-called eclectic approach, involving a combination of empirical and conceptual evidence.