Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, part 2: Antarctic

摘要

An analysis of the late twentieth century and the twenty-first century predictions of Antarctic circulation patterns in a ten model ensemble of global climate system models, using the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs), is presented. The model simulations, and this analysis, were conducted in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report. An application of the methodology to twentieth century reanalyses resulted in conclusions congruent with earlier synoptic climatologies that used different techniques. It was found that the SOM method is a useful tool for diagnosing differences among a large cohort of often quite divergent simulations, allowing the rapid identification of outliers.