Analysis of a 105-year time series of precipitation observed at Uccle, Belgium

摘要

The yearly, monthly and seasonal total precipitation of a 105-year precipitation time series of Uccle, Belgium, were analyzed. Statistically significant trends were found for the yearly total precipitation, for precipitation observed in the winter (DJF) and for the monthly total precipitation of March, using the Mann-Kendall trend test. The few statistically significant trends that were found are shown to be of no statistical significance when the length of the series is changed. Using the adaptive Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZA) filter, the droughts around 1920 and during the mid-1970s and drier-than-normal conditions at the beginning of the twentieth century could be detected. Wavelet analysis of the monthly precipitation revealed an expected statistically significant yearly cycle in the data, together with multi-annual components of 3 and 7 years, which were absent during the period 1935-1945. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.