Variations of frequency of landfalling typhoons in East China, 1450-1949

摘要

On the basis of Chinese government records, the number of tropical cyclones making landfall along the East China coast during the period 1450-1949 is examined. The annual number of typhoons making landfall in East China during this period is found to possess a positive and statistically significant trend, as well as oscillations on centennial to decadal timescales. By classifying the years using proxy records of the El Ni?o and Pacific Decadal Oscillation phenomena, the annual number of typhoon landfall is found to vary with the different phases of these two prominent oscillations, and such variations can be explained to a large extent physically based on modern-day atmospheric data. These results, together with those from previous studies, suggest that variations in the number of landfalling tropical cyclones are largely governed by those in the planetary-scale atmospheric circulations that go through oscillations on various timescales.